COP27: managing the emergency by thinking long-term

"Act like a primitive and plan like a strategist," wrote René Char. This could be on the agenda for a COP27 that will have to deal with the urgency of energy rationing this winter, and the need to think long term when it comes to intensifying efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The energy crisis that Europe has been experiencing since last February is indeed a brutal reminder of pragmatism. For several years, there has been a broad consensus on the need to decarbonise the energy mix. This culminated in the signing of the Paris Agreement, which set ambitious targets.

Since then, geopolitical upheavals have collided with ecological imperatives; it is now necessary to articulate a long-term vision and address immediate needs. A concrete difficulty has occurred - natural gas has been literally cut off, and we are left experiencing the consequences of our persistent and deep dependence on fossil fuels. However, it would be unthinkable to abandon the efforts undertaken. On the other hand, various emerging countries, which are experiencing difficulties in terms of basic energy supply, are seeing their projects jeopardised by political and ideological blockages. A single issue links these matters, which seem so opposed to each other: the difficulty of gaining acceptance and financing the energy transition.

Cost and acceptability

The question of the cost of the energy transition is obviously very important for citizens, especially in our inflationary context. Even before the war in Ukraine, the European institutions estimated the investment needs to be at €175 billion per year for the continent to reach the COP21 objectives by 2030. This cost acceptability is part of a larger problem of getting projects off the ground. With his problem in mind, on 23 September the French executive presented its bill on accelerating renewable energy. If the concrete efficiency of the measures is debatable, the philosophy of the text can only be welcomed. The latter must be disseminated well beyond European borders, where the difficulties encountered take on a completely different dimension.

With COP27 kicking off in Egypt, the question of energy transition in the world and on the African continent will be at the heart of the debates. The exploitation of the continent's gas and oil resources, in a context of energy transition and a decline in conventional resources due to war, is now in question. Unfortunately, a substantial part of the continent still does not have access to electrical infrastructure, even though gas and oil resources would enable many African countries to acquire this access and develop their economies. However, projects that bring hope are often blocked purely by ideology, disregarding the concrete needs and aspirations of the populations. Opponents of these projects, often activists applying western schemes to the rest of the world, would like to ban all projects related to fossil fuel extraction indiscriminately.

A transition without an energy break

These oppositions are a contradiction of the very issues at stake in the energy transition, which must take into account the needs and the degree of development of the economies at risk of being rejected en bloc. It’s rational that realistic trajectories that take into account the needs of emerging countries are proposed. It is time to establish realistic plans for this transition - let's stop pretending that it is possible to quickly cut all ties with fossil fuels. It is not implausible that we are only at the beginning of a period of energy crises and shortages that represent an immediate threat to development, which can only be avoided by acting with pragmatism and discernment.

COP27 will have to set realistic trajectories in this regard. It must also find ways to finance large-scale CO2 capture until the energy transition is complete. Considerations for the long-term impact must guide our choices. The constant short-term changes made in the past with regard to nuclear or gas, for example, have shown their limitations. It is essential to choose a long-term course now that will keep certain lower-polluting energies, in order to move gradually and smoothly towards full decarbonisation. The energy transition, in the West as in Africa, will not be achieved at the cost of an energy break.